August 28th, 2005

Katrina, Karen, Training, and Inheritance

Some of you may not be aware that daisy_knotwise studied meteorology in college. You may also not be aware that my father spent two stints at the Joint Typhoon Warning Center on Guam, the second as the commander of the facility. As a result, we have more than the typical interest in hurricanes around the Roper household.

During our first trip to Guam, we got clobbered by super-typhoon Karen, which went right over the top of our -- thankfully, typhoon-proof! -- house with winds of 200 MPH. Actually, right over the house would have been better, because we would have spent some time in the eye of the storm. Instead, the storm passed over us so that we travelled at a tangent to the northern wall cloud, giving us the most intense winds for the longest possible time.

When I saw the track of another "K" storm turn south over Florida, I knew something was up, because that just isn't a normal storm track. Something was pushing it south -- a lot of high pressure, in this case -- and it was just a question of when it found a way around the high pressure area and started to recurve.

It's recurving now, is a Category 5 storm, and the chances of a catastrophic strike on New Orleans are up to 29%. Our friends and fellow DI, the Gobeyn's, live in Slidell and have bugged out for Millington, Tennessee in connection with Rene's job, a really good decision in this case.

Via Instapundit, here's a link to Brendan Loy's blog which has a lot of really good information and links about the storm.

Meanwhile, if you happen to be in New Orleans and reading this (I doubt anyone is, but...), this would be a really good time to be somewhere else.