I finished with a record of 45 and 39, six games over .500 and about six wins better than my Pythagorean prediction, so either some occasional luck or good managing on my part. (Good managing, in this case, was occasionally throwing in a position player to pitch in a blowout loss, I suspect.)
The fellow I played needs to win 3 of his last 7 games to finish third and make the playoffs outright. If he only wins 2 games, we end up tied. On the other hand, six of those seven games are against the two worst teams in the league, so I'm planning on finishing fourth. :)